Tuesday, July 21, 2020

My Predictions - Investing in Residential Real Estate - Ren Carlton - Tri-County Metropolitan Detroit, Michigan, United States - Summer 2020 Report

My Predictions - Investing in Residential Real Estate - Tri-County Metropolitan Detroit, Michigan, United States - Summer 2020 Report 

Despite the damage caused by COVID 19 and the related quarantines, the U.S. economy and residential real estate market is currently be artificially supported by CARES Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act impact.

Rentals and the CARES Act Eviction Moratorium

The Act provides a wide range of aid, relief, and stimulus provisions, but also institutes a temporary moratorium on certain evictions for the non-payment of rent from a covered dwelling for a period of 120 days, commencing March 27, 2020.

Unpaid monthly rent and fees and other charges (except fees and charges related to nonpayment of rent) may accrue during the 120-day period and be charged to the tenant after the CARES Act 120-day moratorium period ends on July 24, 2020.

Once this period expires, notice to vacate must provide at least 30 days for the tenant to vacate.

A lessor/landlord may not require the tenant to vacate the covered dwelling unit before the date that is 30 days after the date on which the lessor provides the tenant with notice to vacate; and

CARES Act Mortgage Forbearance

While only homeowners with federally backed loans are eligible, more than 4 million households have entered forbearance programs since the law passed — nearly one out of every ten borrowers.

Through the CARES Act, you have the right to request forbearance for up to 180 days, with the possibility of another 180 days if you’re still under financial distress. As part of the relief program, you will also be given a mortgage payment reduction option, where future make-up payments will be spread out over 12 months or added to your mortgage payment once the reduction period is over.

CARES Act Expansion of Unemployment Benefits

Each week over the last four months, there have been at least 1.3 million new claimants, the high coming in the week of March 28, when there were a record 6.9 million claims. This was more than 10 times the highest weekly level seen during the Great Recession in 2009. The total number of claims filed over the four-month period stands at 51.3 million. Even with the recent improvement - with claims edging down for 15 weeks - the current week's level of 1.3 million is about double the 2009 high.

The report also provides data on individuals who filed continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment. There were 17.3 million insured unemployed in yesterday's release (July 15), down from a high of 24.9 million in the second week of May. That is, there have been a record number of hires in recent weeks-as documented in the BLS' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) July 7 release that reported 6.5 million hires in May.

As of July 20, 2020, we still have over 138,000,000 employed workers – and this is only the non-farm payroll data that represent the majority but not all working Americans. Yes, we have suffered tremendous job losses, but we still have a large working population. We want to get back to having over 160,000,000 people working as we did in February 2020.

According to the 7/3/20 Monthly Payroll Growth and Unemployment Rate, the economy added a record 4.8 million jobs to nonfarm payrolls in June, bringing the cumulative increase in May and June to one-third of the sharp decreases in March and April. Similarly, the June unemployment rate, at 11.1%, was down 3.6% from its high in April, and labor force participation jumped by 0.7% to 61.5% (1.9% below its pre-coronavirus level in February).

However, we are not yet out of the woods. The June BLS employment data are based on surveys from the week of June 7-13, prior to the recent growth in newly reported COVID-19 cases in 35 states, and as MBA Chief Economist, Mike Fratantoni stated, we are also continuing to see a very high level of new layoffs, with 1.4 million initial claims for unemployment insurance last week. Moreover, there are still 10.6 million people who remain without work following a temporary layoff, and the longer they remain out of work, the greater the risk that their situation becomes permanent.

My predictions, July 21, 2020

Residential real estate prices could drop because of the following factors
-There are 20,000,000 less people working now than in February 2020.
-Unemployment is over 10%
-Mortgage delinquency is 100% higher than the end of 2019
Unemployment and mortgage delinquency figures resemble those of the Great Recession in 2009. The CARES Act is the major difference. Several of the CARES Act provisions begin expiring this week.

However, a second stimulus package is expected to be passed soon. 2020 is an election year, so I would also expect several of the above programs will be extended. Assuming this happens, residential real estate prices could be maintained, or event go up.

I believe residential real estate prices will remain steady. As the above stimulus provisions expire and stop being extended, you will see housing prices drop. Once you see jobs restored and unemployment reduced to normal levels, mortgage delinquencies will decline and residential housing prices will begin to stabilize and climb. 

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Note: These responses were collected late June/early July 2020

Sources and Links

Disclaimer: This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or any other product or service. We are not offering any legal, investment, tax, or medical advice. Please consult the appropriate professional before doing anything you learn from the content posted on any of our digital properties. All stories are based on true events, but are altered to protect the identity of the individuals involved.

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